this is not unexpected for many who know the historical context, but this is marking the beginning of the end for those hopefule dreams that Iraq would turn out well:
BAGHDAD, Aug 22 (Reuters) - A draft constitution for Iraq to be presented to parliament on Monday will make Islam “a main source” for legislation and ban laws that contradict religious teachings, members of the parliamentary drafting panel said.
One said the text, agreed by the ruling Shi’ite and Kurdish coalition over Sunni Arab objections, would read: “Islam is a main source for legislation and it is not permitted to legislate anything that conflicts with the fixed principles of its rules.”
Shi’ite delegate Jawad al-Maliki said the wording was fixed.
It appeared to be something of a compromise after secular Kurds had objected during negotiations to Islam being “the main source” of laws. It was not clear how legislation would be subjected to the test of conforming to Islamic principles.
Critics have accused Shi’ite Islamists who dominate the interim government and parliament of planning to impose clerical rule in the style of neighbouring Shi’ite Iran. They deny it.
Kurds had complained that U.S. diplomats, who have insisted that women and minorities should enjoy equal rights, had conceded ground to the Islamists in order to meet Monday’s deadline for passing a draft constitution in the legislature.
I’m not sure how you could have a theocracy which wasn’t specifically a Shi’ite or a Sunni theocracy. I can’t imagine what a neutral theocracy would be. My guess is that only a Shi’ite theocracy is a possibility in Iraq as it now stands but that it would require repressive military backing. At the moment that could only come from Iran. That would be resisted by all non-Shi’ites and quite a few Shi’ites as well as the invading forces. The defence forces being trained aren’t strong enough or united enough to give the needed support nor would many of them want to.
Who knows where the leaves will eventually settle when this gale dies down? All we can be sure of is that we won’t have anything remotely like what the governments that prosecuted the war wanted but we knew that a very long time ago. For my part, my best guess is still the one I made when this mess started—civil war with the whole region seriously destabilised. I hope it goes without saying that I still want to be proved wrong but, whenever I assemble all the pieces and arrange them, they won’t stay put in any peaceful configuration. I see signs of descent into civil war already although it is hard to read the signs while occupying forces remain. I would suppose that those who want civil war would be keen for an early exit of foreign troops but, paradoxically, the longer troops remain, the harder it is to prevent civil war since those who want civil war can provoke their more moderate and peaceful rivals with Iraqi targetted violence perpetrated under the guise of trying to oust the foreigners.
Unfortunately, Iraq never had a chance of turning out well.
You cannot set up a free and independent society in that part of the world. It doesn’t matter how much money or how many lives your pour into it: it just cannot be done.
Now here’s another scary thought: how close is the U.S. to becoming a theocracy as well?
