Good luck, everyone down there! My best to you all!
The movers got here to Hollywood with my stuff just as the storm was starting to hit… thankfully i shuttered the house Wednesday evening. We never lost power, everything is fine here except for the trees. Folks down in Dade weren’t so lucky, some of the relatives got flooded and they’re all still without power.
ahhh… back in la Florida…
Ah, new to this, are you?
That matched one of the computer models fairly closely, I think, but wasn’t exactly what the overall prediction was. The prediction is just that . . . a prediction. It’s not what is actually going to happen.
It’s always like that. You can regain a sense of control by taking matters into your own hands and reading the National Hurricane Center stuff yourself.
Were you counting from when you first got slammed, or were you counting from when the center of the storm crossed shore? Remember the storm is a tad wider than it appears on the handy plotting maps. How much bigger varies. Right now, tropical storm force winds extend out 85 miles, for an overall diameter of 190 miles. The hurricane force winds are about half that.
Half the nasty weather occurs in advance of the time the eye crosses shore. Well, sort of. The storms aren’t really round–you have those arcing bands that contain some very nasty weather, too. Certain sides of the storm are worse than others.
They’ll usually tell you when the advance edge will hit, but it’s a whole lot easier to just figure it out on your own. And it’s not difficult, either. You just look at the map . . . it has time markings on it. Like 2 p.m. today, 2 a.m. tomorrow morning, 2 p.m. tomorrow, etc. These will change as the speed changes, so you have to keep up with the maps as they are posted (at predictable times).
The strike point changes constantly, because they don’t know where it will go. They use a bunch of computer models, then some guy at the NHC looks at all that and makes an educated guess.
Pay a visit to www.nhc.noaa.gov, get used to the maps and stuff, and sign up for their emails. It’s very clear from the satellite views and the Doppler radar where the storm is. You can see exactly where it is, and you can see the feeder bands and associated storms and their intensity.
If you start practicing with it now, you’ll be an expert in no time!
Lamb, how can you explain the ‘experts’ being so far off?
Best wishes to you, Tony, and to all who are affected!
Carol
Thanks Carol. I heard on the radio that Florida Power & Light estimates over 1.4 millon people are without power right now.
What would have happened if this had been a category 3 or 4 hurricane??
The storm had just popped up in the Bahamas, so it wasn’t well-formed yet and it was behaving erratically. It’s a lot more difficult to predict under those circumstances. Even in the best of situations, the prediction is just a big guess.
There had been confusion from the beginning. One of the predictive models had the storm doing exactly what it ended up doing, but it had been discounted because it looked so far off the mark.
The prediction was THERE, but you just didn’t know about it because your information sources didn’t mention it. That’s why I think you need to read the NHC information yourself. All of it, not just the little white map.
There are several computer models used in the predictions. Basically, what happens is that a forecaster takes all of those models–all of the maps they generate with track lines on them–and makes educated guesses about which will be accurate. Mostly, they line 'em all up and draw a best-guess line down the middle. The closer a storm gets to a location, the more the models converge, so it’s easier to say where it will go, but even with that, there is always a good bit of leeway.
If the storm has a clear history and is well-formed, and if the environmental factors which steer the storm are clear, then it’s easier to predict where it will go and what it will do. Even then, you just don’t know. Anywhere in the white balloon on that map at the top of the thread is fair game.
What would have happened if this had been a category 3 or 4 hurricane??
It would have been worse. This is what Charley did to Port Charlotte last year. Charley was predicted to have come ashore at Tampa Bay, but made an abrupt turn, was then predicted to come ashore at Fort Myers, but came ashore at Port Charlotte, instead.
I’ve been on generator power about 30 hours or so. They restored service sometime around 2am Saturday.
The point I was making is… I went out Thursday around noon to secure a few houses for family based on a category one storm coming ashore early Friday or possible LATE Thursday night as predicted.
It was around 3pm and I caught the report on TV. You could see the storm just offshore (on radar) but they were STILL supporting the earlier prediction of LATE NIGHT LANDFALL!
Hello ???
My complaint: It was right there and it seemed like they weren’t paying attention to the radar, instead going off older predicted information.
Agreed the storm ‘just popped up’ and yes I saw some of the models earlier that day. The projection was a due west path and they were ALL supporting that. I did see some of the models in the early morning and we all know it was too soon to call. Who had time to do internet research updates and to go behind the ‘professional’ TV weather people?
I finished securing my obligations and raced home only to find downed power lines and tree limbs & branches in the streets. The rain and feeder bands with 25-35mph gusts were just arriving, but some tornados must have touched down earlier and I didn’t hear any reports on the radio while heading back home.
The predicted times and situations are a little confusing. Noon on Thursday was almost too late to be still out and about for a storm predicted to make landfall on Thursday evening or early Friday. There is a lot of terrible weather associated with these storms, much of which precedes the storm itself.
This is from the NHC website. It describes what happens as the storm comes closer. Final preparations need to be completed 24 hours prior, and at 6 hours, there is considerable storm activity.
24 hours before landfall
In addition to the overcast, small low clouds streak by overhead. The barometer is falling by .2 mb/hr (.006"Hg/hr), the wind picks up to 15 m/s (30 kts, 34 mph). The wind driven waves are covered in whitecaps and streaks of foam begin to ride over the surface. > Evacuations should be completed and final preparations made by this time.18 hours before landfall
The low clouds are thicker and bring driving rain squalls with gusty winds. The barometer is steadily falling at half a millibar per hour (.015 "Hg/hr), and the winds are whistling by at 20 m/s (40 kts, 46 mph). It is hard to stand against the wind.12 hours before landfall
The rain squalls are more frequent and the winds don’t diminish after they depart. The cloud ceiling is getting lower, and the barometer is falling at 1 mb/hr (.029 "Hg/hr). The wind is howling at hurricane force at 32 m/s (64 kts, 74 mph), and small, loose objects are flying through the air and branches are stripped from trees. The sea advances with every storm wave that crashes ashore and the surface is covered with white streaks and foam patches.6 hours before landfall
The rain is constant now and the 40 m/s wind (80 kts, 92 mph) drives it horizontally. The barometer is falling 1.5 mb/hr (.044 "Hg/hr), and the storm surge has advanced above the high tide mark. It is impossible to stand upright outside without bracing yourself, and heavy objects like coconuts and plywood sheets become airborne missiles. The wave tops are cut off and make the sea surface a whitish mass of spray.1 hour before landfall
It didn’t seem possible, but the rain has become heavier, a torrential downpour. Low areas inland become flooded from the rain. The winds are roaring at 45 m/s (90 kts, 104 mph), and the barometer is free-falling at 2 mb/hr (.058 "Hg/hr). The sea is white with foam and streaks. The storm surge has covered coastal roads and 5 meter (16 foot) waves crash into buildings near the shore.
I went back over the advisories issued that day (Thursday). This is what they said (summarized). My comments in italics.
At 11 a.m., the center was 55 miles offshore, moving at 6 mph, and had tropical storm level winds extending out 70 miles. At 6 mph, the center would reach shore in 9+ hours, or 8 p.m. The envelope of high winds can be as far as 15 miles onshore already.
At 3 p.m., center was 35 miles offshore, moving at 6 mph, with TS winds extending 80 miles from center. At 6 mph, center has progressed 20 miles and will reach shore in 6 hours. The envelope of high winds has been on shore for some time.
At 5 p.m., the center was 15 miles offshore, moving at 6 mph. Hurricane force winds extended out 15 miles, so they were touching shore. TS force winds extended out 80 miles, so they were well over the shore.
The storm still has not yet made landfall; it is 15 miles short.
At 7 p.m., the storm center made landfall. It did so only one hour sooner than the 11 a.m. prediction (8 p.m.). But, you already had experienced storm conditions preceding the arrival of the storm center, because the envelope of hurricane force winds was 15 miles out from center and the envelop of TS force winds was 80 miles out.
As far as I can see, it wasn’t that far off the official predictions. The center came on shore as it had been predicted to all that day.
Prior to the predictions of that day, the estimated time of arrival hadn’t been specified. It may be that if you went from Wednesday evening’s advisories or early Thursday’s, you would not have been completely aware that the storm had not gone north in the Florida Straits, but had instead been moving west toward shore.
Am I right in thinking that things are looking very serious for the next time this hurricane hits land? I looked at the latest maps and wind speed and it seems really bad.
Yes.
Didn’t the decision to close Miami-Dade County Public schools come late Thursday morning?
http://news.dadeschools.net/releases/rls05/042_katrinaclosing.htm
http://news.dadeschools.net/
Well, I see that it must have. I’m not surprised, though. School officials are usually the last to react. They also have no way to learn from experience, because they don’t have a storm like this every year.
They made decisions on Wednesday based on predictions from early Wednesday which weren’t saying anything about landfall. Looks like nobody got out a map and calculated the speed. Or considered the intensification. They seemed to be going with the latest possible arrival time, rather than the earliest. They probably did this because the official in charge of giving them information didn’t think the storm was that serious or moving that fast . . . because the person who gave him his information . . . and the person who gave him his information . . . and so on and so on.
On Thursday, they got up, went to work, and probably attended a meeting of officials, who were looking at the predictions from during the night. Which had changed. Surprise.
When they finally did decide, even if it was in the wee hours Thursday, they had to notify everyone, write a news release, inform the news media, put the emergency school closure plan into operation, etc., etc. It’s hours later before anyone actually finds out they closed the schools.
This is why I recommend that you keep an eye on the NHC material yourself, as it is timely and correct.
If you wait until public officials decide to say something, you are at the mercy of others.
It’s not difficult to read those advisories. You’ll get used to it in no time. Subscribe to the email notifications, then keep an eye on the advisories and compare what you see there to the satellite views. Look to see what the experience of other communities is with those storms. Compare what the advisories say with where the storm actually goes ashore.
If you have The Weather Channel on cable, it’s very easy to determine this. It’s the location where Jim Cantore shows up. If there is more than one storm, he’ll usually have the worst of the them, but he’ll be on the beach that’s going to get it.
And if you don’t want to read the advisories, the information from TWC is usually correct. THE expert, Gray, is on their staff.
I’m sorry you were taken by surprise by this one. And I hope you don’t have any more . . . ever.